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With the jobs report on Friday somewhat better than expected, and the dollar likely to fall against the Euro, the stock market is posed to move even higher.

It will most likely be led by commodities, energy and tech stocks. One could also just play the Euro/Dollar trade.

Commoditites
    • FCX - proxy for copper
    • GOLD - proxy for gold

Energy

SWN - Natural Gas.

    • - Goldman Sachs just put it on its Conviction Buy List, which has an excellent track record. Because it believes natural gas price has bottomed.
              - Current Price = $41; Goldman's Target price is $65.
    • - Deserves serious consideration, just because Goldman's Conviction Buy List has an uncanny track record.


Tech
    • AAPL
    • - It is bound to rest somewhat after the iPad release. However, the next hype is its earnings and the new iPhones. The new iPhone might be usable with Verizon, which doubles the iPhone market.
    • - Earnings is due out 4/20/10
    • - iPhones will be announced in June, before or during its developers conference, but the rumors and hype will start before that.

      - The iPad will sell much better than expected.
      - Long term, AAPL is a must buy. The only question is timing.

      • I expect:
        • - A dip staring in a couple of days, and then go up around 4/13 or 4/14, one week before earnings announcements.
        - Another dip after earnings, and then hype 1 month before WWDC in June.

Euro
    • FXE

Some shorts to consider:

  • PALM and RIMM
  • - Both are casualties of the smart phone war. The dominant players are iPhone, Android phones. The to be released Windows 7 phones will come on strong also.
  • - There is no room in the consumers market for PALM or RIMM.
  • - In 18 - 24 months, RIMM will likely go down 20 points. But it is a long term play, because it can live off its enterprise business short term.
    - PALM will go bankrupt and go to zero, unless someone would buy it. But who would buy a loser?



  • Tom Tom and Garmin
  • - Their GPS hardware and software is being eaten by the smart phones.
  • - I am surprised at Garmin's strength. Might be due for a fall?
  • - Tom Tom's stock is already pretty low. Wonder if it would go down further.


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Replies to This Discussion

The only one I strongly disagree is RIMM, I think it's business side is still strong and it's Latin America market share is actually increasing.
There were 5 upgrades and 1 sell (GS) after the earning.

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